Jerusalem, Israel – The political aftershocks of Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future and growing frustration over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews are expected to dominate Israel’s parliamentary elections in October, a political analyst and expert on Middle East politics said.
Speaking to international journalists in Jerusalem, Neil Lazarus said Israeli politics has undergone a fundamental shift since the attack, with voters now focused less on the traditional left-right divide and more on questions of security, leadership and accountability.
“Politics is changing here, and politics is changing post-Oct. 7,” Lazarus said.
“The debate has become twofold: for Netanyahu, against Netanyahu. And one of the biggest issues will be the military service of the ultra-Orthodox,” he said.
Israel will hold parliamentary elections on Oct. 27, its first national vote since the Hamas attack sparked the war in Gaza. Opinion polls suggest neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor the opposition is on track to secure the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, making coalition negotiations likely.
“The polls are fascinating because they’re very close all of the time,” Lazarus said. “Neither side will get this magic 61.”
He cautioned that Israel’s coalition-based political system makes forecasting election outcomes difficult.
“Netanyahu is a politician. He knows how to do a deal,” Lazarus said. “It could be that a party with two or three seats makes all the difference.”
Lazarus said the political conversation has also shifted because of growing public anger over exemptions allowing many ultra-Orthodox Jewish men to avoid compulsory military service while reservists continue to shoulder the burden of the war.
“We don’t have enough troops,” he said.
He said the military draft issue has become one of the defining campaign issues alongside Netanyahu’s leadership.
The analyst also said demands for accountability over the Oct. 7 attack remain unresolved, even as the Israeli military has conducted internal investigations and replaced senior officials.
“The question of political accountability has become a political issue.”
Reuters reported this week that Netanyahu’s coalition also faces pressure from internal divisions over military service exemptions, with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party at risk of failing to meet the electoral threshold unless it joins forces with another right-wing party.
Analysts say even small parties could determine who forms Israel’s next government if neither bloc wins a parliamentary majority.
