Metro Manila, Philippines – Philippine inflation has cooled to a near five-year-low in March, owing to cheaper rice and softer rise in pork prices, according to Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data released on Friday.
March inflation – or the rate at which consumer prices rise – stood at 1.8%. That inflation print was the lowest since May 2020’s 1.6%.
March also marked the third straight month when rice inflation stayed in negative territory. The retail price of the staple has fallen by as much as P5 per kilogram (kg), National Statistician Dennis Mapa said on Friday.
Food accounts for 50.2% of the country’s overall inflation in March, Mapa said.
“Ang magandang balita is talagang bumaba na talaga yung presyo ng bigas… at ito ay may malaking kontribusyon sa food inflation in particular. So itong tatlong buwan ng 2025, puro negative na ang inflation rate ng ating bigas,” the PSA head told a press briefing.
[Translation: The good news is that rice prices have really gone down… and it has a large contribution to food inflation in particular. So in the first three months of 2025, rice inflation was negative.]
The rice deflation – or the drop in price levels – was sharpest in March at -7.7%, after registering -2.3% and -4.9% in January and February, respectively, PSA data showed.
The cheaper price of the grain comes on the back of twin moves – a hefty tariff cut on rice imports and a price ceiling on the grain. The tariff cuts have been in effect as early as July through President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’ Executive Order 62, but it took some time before consumers felt the directive’s desired outcome.
“Naalala nyo nung nagsimula nang mag-reduce ng tariff, medyo mabagal ang paggalaw ng presyo sa bigas,” Mapa pointed out.
“Pero itong March, malaki na itong kanyang pagbaba. Overall rice inflation is minus 7.7,” he added.
[Translation: Remember when we began reducing tariffs, rice price movements have been slow. But in March, the drop was significant. Overall rice inflation is minus 7.7.]
Government statisticians and the Department of Agriculture have been making the rounds of public markets periodically to check the price of at least three rice varieties. Regular milled rice averaged P46.09/kg last month, cheaper by almost P5 from March last year’s P51.11/kg, Mapa said. Well-milled rice are being sold at an average P52.25/kg in March versus last year’s P56.44, while special rice, at P62.15/kg against P64.75 during the same period last year.
Other food inflation items
Meanwhile, meat inflation slowed to 8.2% in March from February’s 8.8%. A maximum suggested retail price was also imposed on pork last month, but the African Swine Fever still nags hog farms, constraining supply and muting any price cap’s impact.
Vegetable prices rose at a 6.9% clip, hardly budging from February’ s 7.1%.
Fish inflation was 5.5%, up from 2.9% in February.
But oil’s softer prices, at -1.1%, helped tame overall inflation too.
‘More degrees of freedom’
In a research note, BDO’s research unit said “a lower-than-expected outcome could increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, particularly with the country facing a 17% reciprocal tariff that is likely to weigh on growth.”
The Monetary Board will meet on April 10, a reset from an original date of April 3.
In his reply to NewsWatch Plus’ request for comment, BSP Governor Eli Remolona said “the low inflation rate is welcome news.”
“It gives us more degrees of freedom in this time of uncertainty,” the central bank governor said.
The headline inflation was within the BSP forecast range of 1.7-2.5% for March, bringing the average inflation to 2.2% so far this year. Monetary authorities want to keep the lid on inflation at 3% in 2025, give or take a percentage point.
“The latest inflation outturn is consistent with the BSP’s within-target inflation outlook over the policy horizon. The Monetary Board will consider the latest CPI print, along with latest domestic and global developments, at its monetary policy meeting on 10 April 2025,” a BSP statement released late Friday stated.
