Higher chance of La Nina in last quarter - PAGASA

Metro Manila, Philippines - Filipinos may expect more than the usual rainfall volume for the rest of the year because of a developing La Niña, the weather bureau said on Monday, Sept. 15.

According to the climate monitoring and analyses of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Administration (PAGASA), there is a 70 percent chance of the weather phenomenon in the last quarter and possibly extending to February 2026.

La Niña, the cool phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean turn cooler than average.

This shift typically results in above-normal rainfall in the Philippines and may also increase the number of tropical cyclones toward the year-end.

“When conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next two months and the probability is 70% or more, a La Niña alert is issued,” PAGASA said.

The bureau said that combined with monsoons, thunderstorms, and low-pressure areas, La Niña’s effects could increase risks of flooding and landslides, especially in vulnerable communities.

PAGASA said it will continue monitoring developments and called on government agencies and the public to be on alert.