Metro Manila, Philippines – Diesel prices for as low as ₱75 per liter would “take a couple of months” to happen even under an extended ceasefire in the Middle East, an energy official told lawmakers.
Alessandro Sales, energy undersecretary, shared this assessment at the joint briefing of the House of Representatives about the government’s response to the Middle East crisis on Monday, April 13.
He said under the “best case scenario where a long term agreement and cessation of hostilities is achieved,” diesel would settle at ₱75 to ₱90 per liter.
“This will take a couple of months for the price to ease back to those levels. This will still be higher than our pre-crisis pricing and this is primarily due to structural damage in the Middle East in terms of facilities and the moving around of logistics to bring crude oil to the market,” he told lawmakers.
The DOE said pre-crisis prices may occur mid-2026 under the prolonged ceasefire scenario.
For gasoline, the agency projected prices at ₱62 to ₱75 per liter under such conditions.
Beginning April 14, the DOE said diesel prices would range from ₱105 to ₱147, and gasoline at around ₱77 to ₱116 as global markets ease in light of the ceasefire in the Middle East.
At the counterpart Senate hearing, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said diesel prices could drop to ₱100 or less per liter within a year if the US-Iran ceasefire holds and conditions improve.
“It will be slower than the increase…if it’s steady, maybe we can reach a ₱100 within the year,” she said, noting the war’s unpredictability.
U.S President Donald Trump earlier said Washington’s Navy would block the Strait of Hormuz – the key waterway for oil supplies – after failing to strike a deal with Iran to end the war.
Cartel like behavior
During the House briefing, Sales admitted cartel-like behavior in the pricing system of oil companies.
Companies usually adjust prices Tuesdays based on global market trends from the previous week. Some firms advance announcements, enabling competitors to respond or align their pricing.
“May makikitang cartel like na behavior pati sa movement ng market. I think part of it was because of the Tuesday na sinabi ng gobyerno, Tuesday ang adjustment,” Sales said.
[Translation: There seems to be cartel-like behavior visible even in the movement of the market. I think part of it was because of the government saying that adjustments happen on Tuesdays.]
Miro Quimbo, chairperson of the House committee on ways and means, previously vowed to summon oil firms to the next briefings to explain why their prices moved the same, even under a deregulated market.
