Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, April 3) — The OCTA Research Team favors extending the enhanced community quarantine in Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Bulacan, and Laguna or NCR Plus for at least a week, saying seven days are not enough to slow the spread of COVID-19.
“This one-week ECQ is certainly not enough. We are definitely not out of the woods, and we need an additional week and maybe more,” OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye said in a briefing Saturday.
“If the R [reproduction number] does not drop dramatically in the next 7 days, the national government has to be prepared to consider an additional third week of ECQ,” Rye added.
OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said in the same briefing the reproduction number in Metro Manila, the epicenter of the local coronavirus outbreak, is currently at 1.65. It may go down to 1.33 a week from now and further reduced to 1.09 by April 16 if the ECQ is extended for at least seven more days.
David noted the cases in the NCR Plus are still on an upward trend, but the coronavirus was not spreading as fast as last week as suggested by a slightly lower reproduction number this week. He said the region’s reproduction number was almost 2 or 1.96 a week ago.
David warned if the restrictions are eased after April 4, the supposed end date of the ECQ in NCR Plus or the Greater Manila area, the country may begin to log an average of around 12,000 to 13,000 new cases daily, which would “overwhelm” hospitals in the region, many of which are already full of COVID-19 patients.
The Department of Health earlier recommended extending the ECQ until April 11 to see a significant drop in new COVID-19 cases and hospital admissions.
OCTA said if the ECQ is prolonged in the Greater Manila area, and the two-week lockdown was able to slow the COVID-19 transmission rate, then the NCR Plus should shift to a modified ECQ first before transitioning to a more lenient general community quarantine “to sustain the gains we have achieved.”
The country has been experiencing a fresh surge in coronavirus infections since last month. On Friday, it recorded 15,310 new COVID-19 cases – another all-time high – but the DOH said 3,709 of these infections were part of a backlog from March 31.
