Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, January 29) —Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua has dialed down expectations that the Philippine economy could swing back to positive territory as early as first quarter of this year.
Instead, President Duterte’s top economic manager now believes positive growth likely will be registered later than initially thought or at best, by second quarter.
“This year will be a slow start. Then we will be able to ramp up later… Positive growth starting the second quarter,” Chua told journalists during a forum hosted by the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines on Friday.
The Philippine economy shrank by -9.5% in 2020, its worst year since World War II due to the raging pandemic, worsened by the impact of the eruption of Taal Volcano and strong typhoons.
READ: PH economy plunges by record -9.5% in 2020 as Q4 GDP maintains slump
Chua first announced his sanguine outlook in December, but that was anchored on prospects that the strict quarantine will be eased with the turn of the year.
Back then, hopes were high that most cities of Luzon would transition to a relaxed quarantine regime by first quarter of 2021.
The region accounts for two-thirds of economic output, but was heavily battered by a series of typhoons – super typhoon Ulysses being the worst – last year.
Economic managers had also been banking on allowing children aged 10 to 14 to start going out with their parents and spend to grease the wheels of the economy that already sank into recession in 2020.
Chua had been arguing that 50 percent of spending on non-essentials, like travel and leisure, come from this age group.
READ: 50% of market demand to ‘not recover’ if minors still banned in public places
The IATF had adopted the economic team’s recommendation last week, but was later overruled by President Duterte who said kids must still stay in their homes as a new COVID-19 variant looms large.
The lockdowns under the so-called general community quarantine for Metro Manila and several nearby provinces, along with Davao, have been extended until end-February.
READ: Metro Manila, Cordillera Region under GCQ status in February
