Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, June 28) — The country may see over 17,000 new COVID-19 cases daily in a month’s time, the Department of Health (DOH) warned on Tuesday.
Citing projections from disease surveillance tool FASSSTER, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire in a media briefing said the daily case tally may hit around 17,105 by end of July with increased mobility and continued decline in the public’s compliance to basic health and isolation protocols.
This particular estimate is based on the baseline scenario of a 21% drop in adherence to minimum public health standards.
Vergeire noted that the entry of imported cases and vaccine effectiveness are also factored in the computations.
She added that the lower forecast for end-July is at nearly 12,500 new cases if the decline is at 20%, while the higher estimate shows infections could reach over 22,000 in a single day if compliance is down by 22%.
By mid-July, the projections range from around 3,800 to over 5,300 additional cases daily, also based on a 20-22% decrease in the observance of health measures.
Projections for NCR
Infections have continued to rise nationwide in recent weeks, including in the country’s most densely populated area — the National Capital Region (NCR).
According to Vergeire, assuming there is increased face-to-face capacity in schools in mid-August and no new variant of concern (VOC) emerges, new cases in Metro Manila are forecast to have a “low” peak at 1,784 per day by mid-September.
She said this is based on projections from the Australian Tuberculosis Modeling Network, also known as AuTuMN. She pointed out that the estimate is still lower than the numbers recorded during the Omicron peak in January.
Vergeire added that hospitalizations in NCR are expected to be about half as many as that of the Omicron surge period and that the bed capacity is currently deemed sufficient, assuming there are no new VOCs.
Admissions are also seen to be lower if more Filipinos, particularly the older population, get their COVID-19 vaccine booster, the health official said.
On Monday, the DOH reported that 4,634 more Filipinos tested positive for COVID-19 from June 20 to 26. The daily average number of infections was 662, marking a 53% rise from the previous week.
