Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, June 28) — Outgoing Health Secretary Francisco Duque III on Tuesday said the two-week growth rate of infections is no longer a relevant measure in assessing the COVID-19 situation in an area.
The two-week growth rate computes how many cases were tallied in a certain location in the last two weeks, then comparing it to the average daily cases two weeks prior. Since September 2020, this has been among the bases in deciding on whether or not to escalate or de-escalate the risk classification of an area.
But on June 27, the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) scrapped this metric. Instead, it said the risk classification will be based on average daily attack rates (ADAR) -– which refers to the number of people per 100,000 population who get infected daily –- as well as health care use.
According to Duque, the two-week growth rate metric has lost its significance and relevance. He deemed it no longer necessary and, at some point, sees it as an “alarmist metric.”
“It was unnecessary,” Duque said. “We are nimble and the IATF listens to our experts, and our experts are all in consensus na hindi na kailangan itong talagang [that we don’t really need this] two-week growth rate.”
“Kasi kung zero case ka tapos nagkaroon ka ng tatlo, 300 % na, high-risk ka na, e tatlong kaso lang. E, hindi naman na ito panahon na walang bakuna. Meron tayong bakuna at maganda ang masking natin,” he explained.
[Translation: Because if you initially had zero cases but logged three new ones, then that’s already a 300% increase and you’ll be considered a high-risk area even if it’s just three cases. But it’s not like we don’t have vaccines. We now have them, and we have good masking practices.]
With the revisions, an area will be at low risk if less than six people per 100,000 get COVID-19 daily and if, at the same time, hospital beds and equipment use are below 50%.
Meanwhile, the area will be escalated to moderate risk if the ADAR climbs to six to 18 people per 100,000 population while 50% to 70% of healthcare resources are also already in use.
“Sa tingin namin, ‘yung dalawang ‘yun na lang ang more accurate measure ng situation. So tinanggal ang isa, again to simplify para ‘di na mahirapan tayo,” Duque said, adding that both ADAR and healthcare utilization will always be considered.
[Translation: We think the two metrics are a more accurate measure of the situation. We removed one, again to simplify and not make things difficult.]
With this change, Duque said Metro Manila areas recently placed under moderate risk will be downgraded again.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire announced on Saturday that Pasig, San Juan, Quezon City, Marikina, and Pateros have been escalated to moderate risk due to their two-week growth rate of more than 200%. But only one has a slight increase in hospital admission of over 50%.
“Mawawala na siya [That will be changed], we will look at the numbers again,” Duque said.
According to the health chief, the highest ADAR in Metro Manila as of Tuesday is 3 per 100,000 population.
