ICC ruling on Duterte jurisdiction challenge is ‘all or nothing’ – Kaufman

Metro Manila, Philippines –  A ruling by the International Criminal Court (ICC) Appeals Chamber could decide whether the case against former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte ends now or moves toward a lengthy trial, with his lawyer describing the stakes as “all or nothing.”

Nicholas Kaufman, Duterte’s lead counsel, said the Appeals Chamber’s decision on jurisdiction will determine whether the case proceeds or is dismissed.

“It really is all or nothing,” Kaufman said in an interview with pro-Duterte vlogger Alvin and Tourism on Tuesday. 

Kaufman stressed that a ruling in favor of the defense would immediately terminate proceedings.

“If the appeals chamber decides in favor of the defense, that’s the end of it — the end of the case,” he said.

Kaufman said such a decision would mean Duterte’s immediate release, potentially within the same day.

“Obviously, if the judgment is in our favor, then the former president should be released immediately,” he said.

But if the court rules against Duterte, the case will move forward, beginning with a confirmation of charges expected by April 22. The lawyer said this could lead to a full trial as early as 2027.

Kaufman warned that proceedings at the ICC are notoriously slow.

“Cases at the ICC move at a glacial pace,” he said, adding that trials can stretch for years due to the volume of witnesses and procedural requirements.

He said Duterte’s age could further affect the pace of hearings, with the possibility of limited or non-continuous court sessions.

“I really have ceased to predict things at this court,” Kaufman said. 

Still, he maintained that the defense believes the law supports its jurisdictional challenge and noted that at least one judge in the appeals chamber had previously sided with their arguments.

Kaufman also pointed to earlier positions taken by the Philippine government under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. questioning the ICC’s authority. He suggested that shifting political dynamics may have played a role in the case’s trajectory.

The ruling is expected to settle a central question that has hovered over the case for years: whether the ICC can prosecute alleged crimes tied to Duterte’s anti-drug campaign even after Manila’s withdrawal from the Rome Statute in 2019.