Last four Senate slots a toss-up in Octa Research final survey

Metro Manila, Philippines - The last four spots in the so-called "Magic 12" is anybody's ballgame, pollster Octa Research said, as it released its final senatorial survey for the May 12 elections on Wednesday, May 7.

“Analysis from OCTA Research suggests that the rankings, especially in the critical 9th to 12th positions, are still fluid, with candidates separated by a narrow margin of just a few percentage points,” the pollster said.

In the survey held on April 20 to 24, the survey firm said Willie Revillame, Manny Pacquiao, Imee Marcos, Benhur Abalos, Rodante Marcoleta, and Kiko Pangilinan, were “statistically competitive for a spot in the Top 12”.

These candidates were in the 9th to 20th spot.

“This ongoing volatility is influenced by several factors, including shifting voter preferences, and the impact of intensified local and social media campaigning, as well as the negotiations between senatorial candidates and networks of local politicians for access to command votes,” Octa Research said.

“Additionally, the endorsement of block votes from religious organizations, along with the vast network of resources, political machinery and alliances of the national government at the disposal of administration candidates, further adds to the unpredictability of the race in these final days,” it added.

Among the biggest gainers was Duterte ally Marcoleta, recording an 8.5-point rise in voter preference.

The opposition’s Pangilinan, meanwhile, suffered a 4-point decline.

The solid frontrunners were Bong Go, and Erwin Tulfo and his brother Ben - both siblings of Sen. Raffy Tulfo.

Other administration bets in the winning circle are Tito Sotto, Pia Cayetano, Bong Revilla, Abby Binay, Lito Lapid, Ping Lacson, and Camille Villar.

Duterte ally and re-electionist Bato Dela Rosa and opposition’s Bam Aquino were also on the list.

The survey polled around 1,200 registered voters with a ±3% margin of error.