Strategic voting lack may have cost some admin bets - analyst

Metro Manila, Philippines - The lack of a strategic voting could have been a factor for some administration senatorial candidates’ failure to make the cut with half of the president’s bets in the winning list, an analyst said.

“May Duterte vote talaga [There’s really a Duterte vote]. It shows its capability to create strategic voting in some areas. The Alyansa had no strategic voting,” said Ranjit Rye, OCTA Research president, referring to the administration coalition Alyansa ng Bagong Pilipinas.

Based on partial and unofficial results, Erwin Tulfo, Tito Sotto, Ping Lacson, Pia Cayetano, and Lito Lapid were the only administration shoo-ins. Bong Revilla, Ben Tulfo, and Abby Binay, who figured in pre-election surveys, fell short.

In an interview with NewsWatch Plus, Rye said the three may have carried out “suboptimal campaigns” and relied on Alyansa’s “machinery that didn’t really exist.”

On the other hand, former senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan were a surprise, placing second and fifth, respectively, in partial and unofficial tallies.

“Bam and Kiko won in the bailiwicks of the administration. Calabarzon, Central Luzon, NCR. In short, sa baba sa south and sa Mindanao at saka sa Central Visayas, Cebu in particular, nag-straight voting ang mga tao. Pero ang Alyansa walang straight voting,” he said

[Translation: Bam and Kiko won in the bailiwicks of the administration. Calabarzon, Central Luzon, NCR. In short, down south in Mindanao and Central Visayas like Cebu, people voted straight. But Alyansa didn’t have that.]

“The command votes of the administration did not happen or (were) not optimal. But on the other hand, I think the bigger explanation is the people decided. They were disappointed in the administration. They voted (for) the opposition,” he added.

Rye said surveys failed to capture these results since a fifth of voters, or 20 percent, supposedly decided on Election Day.

While voter turnout was high, he said some under-voted, which was an advantage for the opposition.

Rye said while the rankings did not reflect OCTA’s pre-election survey, it was able to reflect all 12 probable winners in the last sampling three weeks ahead of the polls.

“Given the dynamics that we were already seeing in April 2024, we were expecting major changes… In the end the survey is a probability instrument, it's not deterministic, it's not a crystal ball,” he said.

Experienced candidates

Meanwhile, an analyst from another pollster said the vote results show preference for experienced candidates.

“Nine out of 12 na nasa Magic 12 ay senador na at yung tatlo doon ay congressman or congresswoman. These are people who have legislative and parliamentary experiences,” Eric Estrabo, analyst from Publicus Asia said.

“For example Sen. Bong Go is very known for Malasakit Center. We also have the top two… Sen. Bam Aquino, kilala siya ng kabataan…dahil sa kanyang batas on free tertiary education act,” he added.

[Translation: Nine out of 12 candidates in the Magic 12 are and had been senators. Three are House members. These are people who have legislative and parliamentary experiences...For example Sen. Bong Go is known for the Malasakit Center. We also have the top two… Sen. Bam Aquino, the youth knew about him as author of the Free Tertiary Education Act.]

Estrabo said the surprising rankings of Aquino and former Sen. Kiko Pangilinan may be driven by youth and millennial votes, who comprise a majority of the voting population. In the last Publicus Asia survey on May 1, Aquino ranked second followed by Pangilinan.

In the case of Sagip party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta, ranked sixth in the partial and unofficial tally, he said this may be driven by a number of factors.

“He has the Duterte endorsement…Another one he is a prominent member of the Iglesia ni Cristo and he is also endorsed by the INC. So malaking impact iyon sa kanyang ranking,” he said.

[Translation: He has the Duterte endorsement… Additionally, he is a prominent member of the Iglesia ni Cristo and is also endorsed by the INC. That has a significant impact on his ranking.]