Counting on the ‘Solid North’
Batac, Ilocos Norte - As Filipinos head to the polls today, will the so-called Solid North deliver the votes for administration candidates?
The Solid North, which groups Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, and parts of the Cordillera, has long been identified as loyal to the Marcos family. In 2022, President Ferdinan Marcos Jr. received overwhelming support from these areas, or 95.84 percent of the vote in Ilocos Norte alone.
But three years forward, political analyst Dennis Coronacion cautions against assuming a guaranteed sweep.
“In the past elections, siguro panahon pa nung father niya, yung si [perhaps in the term of his father] the late president, Marcos Sr. Napakita yun [It was shown] in several elections when he was still president… After that, I think nabuwag lang yan nung EDSA [EDSA demolished that base],” Coronacion said, noting that bloc voting resurfaced in 2022 with Marcod's presidential win.
Coronacion pointed out localism and regionalism when a candidate from one’s locality rises to national fame.
“We take pride in someone who came from our region or province and who is catapulted to national politics… The same thing happened to former President Rodrigo Duterte. Mindanaoans took pride in his victory and supported him,” he said.
That same dynamic could favor administration-endorsed Senate bets under the Alyansa ng Bagong Pilipinas. But it’s not simple.
“If nag-endorse ang pangulo, more often than not, iboboto yan ng mga followers (If the president has endorsed a candidate, more often than not, the followers will vote for the candidate) although not all. Majority are going to vote for the people who are endorsed by their local and national leaders,” Coronacion said.
A number of variables can still alter the outcome. Endorsements may falter if candidates clash with influential local leaders.
“There are times na hindi straight binoboto ang senatorial line-up ng isang partido. May mga negotiations sa local level (There are times that some local governments do not endorse the full slate of a party. There are negotiations along the way])” he noted, citing cases where even Marcos allies have backed rival candidates.
The uncertainty is underscored by Senator Imee Marcos’s admission in February that the Solid North’s strength may no longer be what it once was.
“Wala na ‘yung Solid North, buhusan na lang ng proyekto (There’s no more solid north, just pepper them with projects),” she said during a public forum, suggesting that patronage politics, rather than legacy or loyalty, may now be driving voter behavior.
This shift comes nearly two years after President Marcos himself rallied Northern Luzon lawmakers to preserve the alliance’s strength. At the May 2023 oathtaking of the Northern Luzon Alliance, he praised the group’s unity, even during politically lean years.
“The solidarity and the strength of the Ilocano bloc has remained and it has served us well. So let us keep it going,” the president said in Malacañang, recalling how the bloc supported each other even when the Marcoses were out of power.
“And there is maybe a point [that] Ilocanos are overrepresented [in government], but the reason is because we help each other — because we stay solid.”
But with shifting loyalties, local deals, and internal rifts, including Imee Marcos’ alignment with Vice President Sara Duterte, the elections may test whether that solidarity is just a myth.
