Higher vegetable, fuel prices drive inflation to 6-month high

Manila, Philippines - Inflation, or the rate at which consumer prices rise, picked up speed to a six-month high in September, on higher food and fuel costs, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Tuesday, Oct. 7.

The back-to-back typhoons - Nando (Ragasa), Opong (Bualoi) and Mirasol (Mitag) - combined with the southwest monsoon that brought heavy floods, hurt crop production, stoking vegetable prices. The successive fuel price hikes were also a main inflation driver that month, the PSA said.

Inflation settled at 1.7 percent in September, the fastest pace since March, sustaining an uptick for a second straight month. The September inflation reading was within the central bank’s 1.5 percent to 2.3 percent forecast range for the month. The year-to-date average of 1.7 percent also still falls within its full-year target.

“Nakita talaga itong mga pag-ulan at pagbaha particularly sa mga vegetable-producing provinces natin so may impact ito noong August at itong Sityembre,” National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa told a press briefing on Tuesday, Oct. 7.

[Translation: The rains and floods in August and September had an impact on vegetable-producing provinces.]

“We see na baka magtuloy-tuloy pa ito sa mga susunod na buwan kasi meron tayong mga storms in the past month,” he said.

[We see this impact continuing in the next months because we had storms in the past month.]

Food inflation accounted for 16 percent of the overall inflation, with vegetables alone having a 1.7 percentage share, according to PSA data.

Cabbage (53%), chili peppers (42%), pumpkins (33.6%) and bananas registered double-digit inflation readings.

“Medyo elevated itong inflation natin [Inflation is slightly elevated],” Mapa said.

“Vegetable inflation rose sharply to 19.4 percent from 10.0 percent, making it the single largest contributor to overall inflation. Successive weather disturbances in key production areas have driven these price increases,” Economic, Planning and Development Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said in a statement.

Rice deflation was a tad lower at 16.9 percent from 17 percent, “reflecting lower farmgate and international prices despite reduced import arrivals following the rice import ban,” the agency said.

Transport costs – particularly gas and diesel – also drove inflation. Diesel inflation quickened to 5.1 percent in September from August’s negative 0.8 percent.

“The uptrend in the overall inflation in September 2025 was primarily brought about by the annual increase of transport index at 1.0 percent in September 2025 from an annual decline of 0.3 percent in August 2025,” the PSA said in a separate statement.

Balisacan said the September outcome points to manageable price movements despite recent supply-side pressures.

“The slight uptick in inflation underscores the sensitivity of domestic food prices to supply disruptions. We are working closely with various agencies to stabilize supply, keep essential goods affordable, and safeguard household welfare,” he said.