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SONA 2015: What lies ahead for the peace process

Ghadzali Jaafar, Vice-chair for Political affairs of MILF, has converted some of his family’s idle lands in Maguindanao into an oil palm plantation.

“[P]ag andyan na ang Bangsamoro government, di naman pwede lahat kami ma-accommodate diyan, lalo na yung mga commanders namin,” said Jaafar.

The MILF leader now earns about P200,000 out of a month’s harvest.

He hopes to encourage other rebel commanders to also invest in oil palm farming as a means of livelihood once the Bangsamoro government is in place.

“Sa abot ng ating makakaya, isusulong natin ang isang panukalang batas na makatwiran, makatarungan, at katanggap-tanggap sa lahat,” President Benigno S. Aquino III said in his 2014 State of the Nation Address.

A year after President Aquino’s appeal for congressional support, the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) is still nowhere near its passage.

The House of Representatives has yet to wrap up plenary debates.

In the Senate, the bill has yet to hurdle the committee — and a number of senators are questioning its constitutionality. There are even moves to replace it with a substitute bill.

The shaky peace process nearly collapsed following the bloody Mamasapano clash in January.

The death of more than 60 people, mostly members of an elite police unit, bred mistrust between the government and the MILF.

The MILF was accused of deliberately attacking the policemen, subsequently drawing public outrage.

President Aquino was under fire after he was linked to the controversial police operation that was supposed to target wanted terrorists.

Despite uncertainties facing the BBL, the MILF began the initial stage of decommissioning its armed members, estimated at roughly 12,000.

More than a hundred rebels have turned over 75 high powered and crew-serve weapons.

In exchange, government is pushing socio-economic programs for the rebels and their communities.

“[W]e still, we are still in that frame of mind that the law will be passed within this year. and therefore the plebiscite will happen,” said Miriam Coronel-Ferrer, Chairperson of the government’s peace panel.

The peace panels want the Bangsamoro bill enacted before mid-October, when candidates declare their intent to run in next year’s elections.

Under the peace agreement, elections for the first set of Bangsamoro leaders should be held simultaneously with next year’s national polls.

But what would happen if there’s no Bangsamoro law?

“[N]o, the agreement will stay. It’s a signed document. But whether or not it will be respected by either parties after 2016, is something we cannot foresee now,” Ferrer said.

“[P]ag walang BBL, kakantyawin kami niyan eh… sasabihin nila sa amin, yan ba ang sinabi namin. Walang sigurado ‘yang BBL, bakit natin binitiwan ang mga baril. pero hanggang doon lang,” said Jaafar.

Jaafar added that there are indications of dissent among their supporters, as shown in a letter of appeal sent to the MILF leadership.

“[A]ng laman ng petition nila, kung failure ang BBL, gusto nila MILF, babalik sa original na demand ng Bangsamoro which is independence… Tanong nila, ano pa ang kailangan ng gobyerno malaman, e nasabi na lahat. so frustrated sila. ito very dangerous na situation.”

But the MILF has assured that it won’t give up on the peace agreement, even if it means dealing with a new president who may have a different take on the peace process.

“[C]ome filing of candidacy, then definitely we will have to work with all presidentiables, especially… to make sure that whatever gains that have been achieved will be carried through, transfer all the mechanisms and institutions of proper manner, whoever will be the next president,” said Ferrer.

Just like Jaafar’s palm oil seedlings, the peace process needs to be nurtured and will take time before it can bear fruit. For MILF leaders and their combatants, patience indeed will be a very important virtue.

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