Metro Manila (CNN Philippines) — At the behest of the Arbitral Tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, the Philippines began on Monday (July 13) its second round of arguments in its case against China over the latter’s activities in the West Philippine Sea.
Beijing has refused to accept the arbitration and take part in the proceedings. It prefers to conduct bilateral talks instead.
Manila, on the other hand, maintains international law as its primary approach to settle the dispute.
This very divergence concerns geopolitical analyst Richard Heydarian.
In exclusive interview with CNN Philippines, Heydarian said that the international legal system could help rein in China’s “territorial assertiveness.”
However, he is concerned that the Philippines is trying to win the “legal argument” at the expense of the “operational argument” — that is, the direct administration of the West Philippine Sea.
“We have to be realistic,” he said.
“The legal cycle is grinding very slow. It might take one to three months before we’ll get to know about the jurisdiction being cleared… We have been more than two years into this process and we’re just discussing the jurisdiction now.”
While the legal proceedings push through, Heydarian pointed out that China continues its reclamation activities in the disputed waters.
“They’re building islands there that are coast air strips,” he said. “This is very significant because operationally, it gives China an ability to protect its claims [and] to prevent anyone from taking away those islands.
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“My worry is that, if China goes at its current pace, it will develop the skeleton of an air defense identification zone. Essentially, China will be able to dominate the air space and the maritime space to a point wherein it will prevent even us and the Vietnamese and Malaysians from resupplying our troops.
“China may soon be in a position to drive us out of other features that we actually control right now. So, they might be winning actually the de facto sovereignty occupation war while we’re trying to win the more symbolic legal war.”
Heydarian believes that the issue foreshadows China’s rise as a global power.
“China is trying to create a perimeter of defense,” he said. “China is actually trying to recreate what the U.S. did back in the nineteenth century by dominating the Caribbean and near waters…. China’s argument is that all great powers first started by dominating their immediate adjacent waters. In the globalized world, waters are crucial to dominating global trade.”
The analyst pointed out, for example, that 60% to 70% of Japan’s energy resources pass through the South China Sea.
