Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, April 23) — While some health experts see a flattening of the coronavirus curve in the Philippines, the health department says it is still too early to say.
“Nakakaflatten na tayo ng curve? Too early to say. Hindi pa natin masabi with all the things that we are doing, wala pa tayo sa punto na makapag sabi that we have already flattened the curve,” says Health Department spokesperson Maria Rosario Vergeire.
[Translation: Have we flattened the curve? Too early to say. With all the things we are doing, we are not yet at the point where we can tell if we have already flattened the curve.]
But she told reporters in a video conference on Thursday, the now slower reproduction time of the virus is a good indication that the COVID-19 cases are staring to plataeu.
At the beginning of the outbreak, the number of infections doubled in three days. The case doubling time is now five days, Vergeire said.
“Sinabi ni [Secretary Duque] nagplateau kasi for the past days medyo nagtretrend tayo ng ganitong numero lang, hindi nagspike pataas,” she said.
[Translation: Secretary Duque said there is a plateau because for the past days, the recorded new cases are around the same number, and there is no spike.]
“At sabi nga ng mga eksperto kung magkakadoubling time na 30 days and more talagang sinasabi na nating we are on to that direction of flattening the curve, pero matagal pa tayo dun.”
[Translation: Experts said that if the doubling time becomes 30 days and more, we can really say that we are on to that direction of flattening the curve, but that will take a while.]
Special assistant to the health secretary Beverly Ho explained that they are “so careful” about categorically saying that the curve has been flattened because the Department of Health is still facing limitations. Among these is the data that are coming in from hospitals, regional epidemiological surveillance units and hospitals.
The number of new cases including the deaths and recoveries is still not real-time.
Some of the reports on cases are not transmitted to the DOH immediately, while some have yet to be verified.
This is why the official coronavirus case tally announced by the Health Department everyday is sometimes different from the numbers presented by officials in localities.
Vergeire said that they need to present accurate information to make appropriate recommendations to the President. That includes data on the reproduction time of the virus, as well as updates about the expanded mass testing and the current health care capacity.
