Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, June 1) — While exports are expected to give economies of ASEAN-6 Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam a boost this year, UK think tank Oxford Economics expects the Philippines to “continue to lag the pack significantly.”
In a recent report, Oxford Economist Sung Eun Jung said exports will bounce back at varying speeds among the said nations. For instance, Vietnam and Malaysia are among those projected to see the “largest contribution to 2021 growth” from exports.
“Vietnam and Malaysia have outperformed, while the Philippines has fared much worse,” read the United Kingdom-based think tank’s report, noting export volumes rose by 25.5% in Vietnam and 17% in Malaysia in the first quarter of 2021.
“In comparison, the Philippines’s exports were only marginally better — up 0.5%,” with its exports expected to only provide 2.7% in total economic output this 2021, stated the report.
Described as an agricultural country, the Philippines likewise emerged an exception in Jung’s projection that agricultural exports will remain a stable income source for many economies in the region. Local banana production, which comprises 38% of agricultural exports, “suffered heavily from Panama disease and a typhoon,” she noted.
The report also flagged how the Philippines has been less attractive for export-oriented foreign investments due to “weak infrastructure and business conditions” despite low wages and a young workforce, traits it shares with Indonesia.
Foreign direct investments are touted as key sources of employment for Filipinos, with capital placements generating additional job opportunities for locals.
“Plugging into global supply chains, especially as firms adjust to rising costs in China, will have a significant impact on the manufacturing production of the ASEAN-6,” said Jung’s report, adding how long-term impacts on exports and growth are “likely” for those that “lose out in this competition.”
