Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, April 23) — There is a need to extend the modified enhanced community quarantine in NCR Plus — which is set to end on April 30 — if the reproduction number or R0 does not stay below 1 “in a sustained manner,” OCTA Research fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said Friday.
“We urge the national government…not to exit [from] the MECQ until the R0 is at least less than .9 in a sustained manner,” Austriaco told a webinar.
Austriaco said the reproduction number must be below 1 for “at least several weeks” to decongest hospitals. He explained this assumption is based on the average number of days a COVID-19 patient is admitted to a hospital, which is 27 days.
OCTA fellow Guido David told the same webinar the reproduction number in Metro Manila — the epicenter of the local coronavirus outbreak — went down to .98 after almost four weeks of tighter restrictions, but he noted this may still increase again. The R0 is the number of people to whom an infected person can pass the virus. The R0 in the region went up to over 2 in early March, the early stages of the new surge, according to David’s estimates. NCR then was still under the more lenient general community quarantine.
“This reproduction number is unstable at the moment. What that means is it still could increase,” David said.
Austriaco explained the R0 is “unstable” because some LGUs are not recording a decline in new cases, “so you always have the possibility that as some of the LGUs recover, there will be an outbreak in one LGU that will spill over to the adjacent LGUs.”
“We are looking for a consistent decrease throughout all the 17 LGUs before we know we have significantly passed through the surge,” he added.
David said 14 of the 17 NCR LGUs had a one-week negative growth rate as of April 22. Those with positive growth rates are Taguig, Valenzuela, and Marikina.
The fewer cases recorded in 14 LGUs in NCR this week did not mean “a continued downward trend, but [they are] a good indicator,” David pointed out.
He noted the daily average of COVID-19 cases in NCR is around 4,200, which is 11% lower than the week before which was about over 5,000. Two weeks ago, NCR was averaging about 5,200 cases per day, he added.
However, the COVID-19 bed occupancy rates of NCR hospitals remain “high,” with 14 LGUs logging over 60%, David noted, citing the Department of Health’s COVID-19 tracker.
OCTA fellow Ranjit Rye, meanwhile, said they need to see the data for next week before making a final recommendation on quarantine classifications for next month.
For his part, Philippine Hospital Association President Jaime Almora said he favors the extension of MECQ in NCR Plus.
“Complex itong problema natin. Pero kailangan piliin natin kung alin ang uunahin natin of course ang unahin natin ay ‘yung mga buhay buhay natin, over and above ‘yung mga other concerns. So kung ‘yan ang isipin natin, ang talagang solusyon ay palawigin pa itong MECQ pahabaan pa. Para mapababa natin ‘yung reproduction rate,” he told CNN Philippines’ Balitaan.
[Translation: Our problem is complex, but we need to choose life over and above other concerns. So, if we choose life, then we need to extend this MECQ declaration to lower the reproduction rate.]
NCR Plus or Greater Manila which is composed of Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal transitioned to a more relaxed quarantine status on April 12 after being placed under the strictest enhanced community quarantine for two weeks due to an exponential rise in COVID-19 cases.
The Greater Manila area, as well as the provinces of Quirino and Abra, and Santiago City in Isabela are under MECQ until April 30.
Over the past weeks, the country has been setting new record highs in the number of infections and death toll. It recorded the deadliest day of the pandemic on April 10 as the government reported 401 COVID-19 fatalities.
The DOH has so far logged 979,740 cases nationwide, of which 16,529 resulted in deaths. Meanwhile, 860,412 have been tagged as recovered.
