Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, June 18) — The OCTA Research group on Saturday maintained its projection of a possible “weak” COVID-19 surge, as it reported a 71% increase in the average daily cases in Metro Manila over the past week.
The National Capital Region (NCR) recorded an average of 176 infections daily during the June 11-17 period, up from the previous week’s average of 103, OCTA said.
It explained this translates to an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 1.24. ADAR is the number of daily new cases per 100,000 population.
Citing the Department of Health (DOH) data, the researchers also flagged the 282 additional cases logged in NCR on June 17, which it said is the area’s highest single-day count since Feb. 26.
This is with the exception, however, of April 3, when there was a high number of reported cases due to a possible backlog, OCTA clarified.
Meanwhile, the group’s figures showed the reproduction rate in the region rose to 1.80 as of June 14, from the 1.40 the week prior, while the positivity rate climbed to 3.7%.
The reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by a single case, while the positivity rate is the percentage of infected people out of all those tested.
But while cases continue to increase, hospital bed occupancy and ICU utilization in Metro Manila remained low at 22% and 17%, respectively, according to OCTA.
“So far, the numbers we are seeing have been in line with our projections: a weak surge and no escalation of alert levels or restrictions because we expect our healthcare system will be able to manage the relatively low number of hospitalizations,” the independent research group said.
Last week, OCTA warned a mild surge is possible this month or in July due to the “more concerning” situation in Metro Manila.
On the same day, DOH spokesperson Maria Rosario Vergeire said while a surge is always possible, they do not see this happening anytime soon.
READ: OCTA says mild COVID-19 surge possible this month or July; DOH says not seen anytime soon
