Metro Manila, Philippines – The Department of Agriculture believes the country’s rice importation volume will not reach 5.4 million metric tons this year, describing the projection of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) as “exaggerated.”
According to the USDA, the Philippines is also seen to have 5.5 million metric tons of rice imports by 2026.
“Record imports are projected based on strong growth in consumption outpacing production,” the USDA said in its report published May 14. “Vietnam is the largest supplier of rice to the Philippines, with Thailand, Pakistan, and Burma supplying most of the remainder.”
“Medyo exaggerated konti ‘yung projection ng USDA [The USDA’s projection is a little bit exaggerated],” Agriculture spokesperson Arnel de Mesa said in an interview on Tuesday.
De Mesa said in 2023, palay production was 20.06 million metric tons, while imports were 3.5 million metric tons.
By 2024, rice imports reached 4.8 million metric tons due to the lost 1 million metric tons of palay because of the effects of El Niño, La Niña, and the series of typhoons, De Mesa said.
“The DA is projecting na maka-recover tayo [we will have a recovery],” De Mesa told reporters – that is if there are no serious weather disturbances this year. He said there is no El Niño episode in 2025 and rainfall patterns are expected to be normal.
“If there’s any indication, first quarter, ang laki ng ating increase…at naka-recover ‘yung ating crop subsector, especially palay,” he said.
[Translation: If there’s any indication, we had a huge increase in the first quarter, and the crop subsector, especially palay, recovered.]
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The country’s palay production in the first quarter was 4.698 million metric tons, slightly higher than the 4.685 million metric tons in the same period last year, the Philippine Statistics Agency reported.
The DA is targeting 20.4 million metric tons of palay harvest this year.
De Mesa said rice consumption will remain at 122 kilograms per capita per year.
As of May 15, around 1.5 million metric tons of rice imports have arrived in the country, according to the Bureau of Plant Industry.
