DOE sees possible fuel price rollback as Marcos weighs excise tax cut

Metro Manila, Philippines – The Department of Energy said Friday a fuel price cut is possible next week, a break from the successive rising cost, as President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. weighs the suspension or reduction of the fuel excise tax in light of recommendations from economic managers.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said initial market data show a downward trend, although final figures will depend on the full five-day trading computation.

“Kung iyong trend lang ang based on the four days, may rollback siya. So, I just want to explain, how do you compute, five days kasi iyan Monday to Friday… kung may mangyari ngayon at baka mag-spike ulit baka maiba iyong computation,” Garin said during a Palace briefing on Friday, April 10. 

[Translation: Based on the four-day trend, there is a rollback. But computation is based on five days, Monday to Friday, so if something happened and the price surges, the computation could still change.]

She said the DOE will wait for final closing prices before announcing official adjustments.

The Middle East conflict has resulted in constricted global supply as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway where around a fifth of the world’s oil passes through.

“Ako rin actually, excited kasi this will be my first good news, if ever, for the last month. But I cannot tell you yet… hopefully yes,” she added.

[Translation: I’m excited as well because this could be my first good news in the past month. But I cannot give numbers yet… hopefully, yes.]

Garin said fuel supply remains stable.

“The 165 million liters… naka-stagger iyan para spread out din iyong storage natin… it’s expected the entire 165 million liters for this month of April,” she said.

[Translation: The 165 million liters will arrive in staggered shipments to spread out storage, and the full volume is expected within April.]

She added that fuel rationing as suggested by some sectors, is not on the table as the DOE cracks down on market abuse.

“What we have issued as the directive from DOE is no hoarding… kung ano iyong kailangan mo sa tanke… hindi puwede na may full tank ka na may container ka pa,” Garin said.

[Translation: The DOE directive is no hoarding… you should only get what you need for your tank… you cannot have a full tank and still store fuel in containers.]

On the proposed excise tax suspension, Garin said the Development Budget Coordination Committee has presented a number of scenarios to the UPLIFT Committee and the president, including full and partial suspension options over varying periods.

“I think the DBCC has met… they presented different scenarios… and currently by presenting it to the UPLIFT Committee… these would be announced at the proper time… by the president kung anong desisyon,” she said.

[Translation: The DBCC has met and presented different scenarios to the UPLIFT Committee, and the President will announce the decision at the proper time.]

The deliberations stem from Republic Act 12316, signed by Marcos on March 25, which grants the president the authority to temporarily suspend or reduce excise taxes on fuel if global oil prices breach a threshold.

Under the law, the president may act once the average Dubai crude oil price reaches or exceeds $80 per barrel for one month, upon recommendation of the DBCC and in coordination with the Department of Energy.

The measure allows either a full or partial suspension of excise taxes on gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products, but only for a limited period of up to three months at a time, and not exceeding one year in total. The authority to exercise this power runs until Dec. 31, 2028.

Any suspension or reduction would apply only to incoming fuel shipments and not to existing inventory, meaning price adjustments may not be immediately felt at the pumps.

Economic managers have also warned that suspending fuel excise taxes could significantly affect government revenues, with estimates showing potential losses of more than P100 billion if implemented for several months.

Garin said the government is balancing these fiscal considerations with the need to ease the burden on consumers, particularly in the transport and logistics sectors.

“Ang importante kasi talaga dito is we need to soften or lessen the impact… sa transportation… kasi ito iyong sector na highly affected… any shaving of the price will help,” she said.

[Translation: What’s important is to soften or lessen the impact, especially on transportation, which is highly affected… any reduction in price will help.]

For now, Garin said, the government is focusing on targeted subsidies, including fuel assistance and transport support programs, while awaiting the President’s decision.