Manila, Philippines – Consumer prices rose at their fastest clip in 13 months in February on the back of higher commodity costs, the Philippine Statistics Authority said on Thursday, March 5, while warning that a potential Iran war-driven oil shock could further erode purchasing power in the coming months.
Inflation quickened for a third straight month in a row to 2.4 percent in February, a reading only outpaced by January last year’s 2.9 percent, the data showed.
That print still fell within the central bank’s forecast range of 2.3 percent to 3.1 percent for the month, and brought the two-month average to 2.2 percent so far, within its 2026 goal of 3 percent give or take a percentage point.
“The BSP is also closely monitoring recent developments in the Middle East to the extent that the rise in the price of oil leads to broader price pressures,” the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said in a statement on Thursday.
Elevated fuel prices last month already contributed to inflation’s uptick during the period, but with global oil supply under strain from the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and the US military campaign against Iran – and the retaliation by Tehran – the PSA is bracing for more pain ahead.
“Pag may increase sa direct input, ito yung price of diesel, price of gasoline, normally nag-rerequest yung ating mga miyembro ng transport sector na magtaas ng pamasahe so dun magkakaron ng impact sa other passenger transport na substantial ang weight,” National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa told a press briefing.
[TRANSLATION: When there’s an increase in direct input costs – the price of diesel and gasoline – normally, the transport sector seeks a fare hike which will have an impact on other passenger transport whose weight (on the CPI) is substantial.]
Food inflation accelerated to 1.6 percent, from 0.7 percent the month before, as rice deflation showed signs of nearing positive territory, “reflecting tighter supply conditions following the import restrictions imposed in late 2025 and the ongoing lean season.”
Unfavorable weather and the closed fishing season caused vegetables, fish and seafood prices to rise.
Non-food items – rents, water, electricity, gas and other fuels – also posted higher price increases.
