Metro Manila, Philippines – Vice President Sara Duterte is the leading contender in early polling for the 2028 presidential race, but the field remains wide open and could still produce a dark horse candidate, a political analyst said.
Political science professor Dennis Coronacion said Duterte’s strong trust and approval ratings make her the apparent frontrunner at this stage, even as the election is more than two years away.
“She is clearly ahead based on current surveys. But it’s still very early, and Philippine politics has shown time and again that unexpected candidates can rise quickly,” Coronacion told NewsWatch Plus.
Duterte’s position has been bolstered by declining public support for President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., whose administration has faced mounting criticism over governance and corruption-related issues. Coronacion said the president’s difficulties have kept Duterte largely insulated from blame tied to contentious policies.
“In a presidential system, the president takes the heat,” he said. “The vice president is often spared.”
Coronacion added that attacks from Malacañang over Duterte’s frequent overseas travel have not significantly weakened her support, as voters appear more focused on the performance of the sitting administration.
Still, Coronacion cautioned that early frontrunners do not always win, pointing to past elections in which late entrants reshaped the race.
He cited former President Rodrigo Duterte, who entered the 2016 race late and won after being widely viewed as an unlikely contender.
“With more than two years to go, alliances can shift, new names can enter, and public sentiment can change,” Coronacion said. “A dark horse could still emerge and alter the course of the 2028 election.”
