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‘Worst case scenario:’ Manila Trench Segment 2 movement may generate magnitude 8.4 quake

A map showing the earthquake distribution from Dec. 17 to 20, 2024 off Ilocos Sur. (Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology/Website)

Metro Manila, Philippines – A magnitude 8.4 earthquake is the “worst case scenario” amid the tremors in the Manila Trench, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said.

Phivolcs, in a tsunami simulation, divided the Manila Trench into four segments.“Ang mga sequence ng offshore earthquakes sa Santa Catalina, Ilocos Sur ay nangyayari sa Manila Trench segment 2 (MT2),” Phivolcs said in a statement on Monday night, Dec. 23.[Translation: The sequences of offshore earthquakes in Santa Catalina, Ilocos Sur occur in Manila Trench Segment 2.]“Base sa model, ang worst case scenario kung sakaling gumalaw ang buong MT2 ay isang Magnitude 8.4 na lindol,” it added.[Translation: Based on the model, the worst case scenario should the whole MT2 move is a magnitude 8.4 quake.]Should the tremor generate a tsunami, Phivolcs said the first wave – with a height of up to 15 meters – would reach the coasts of Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, and Cagayan within two to 15 minutes.’ ‘7’: ‘contentWidth’: ‘100%’ ’embedCode’: ‘