Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, December 2) — Experts of the Department of Health (DOH) have estimated that the daily COVID-19 cases during the upcoming holiday season could reach as high as 3,172 if minimum public health standards are not observed.
“Yun ating latest na projections na ginawa ng ating experts, tinataya na kung saka-sakaling matutuloy ang pagbaba ng compliance with minimum public health standards, ang pinakamataas na maari nating makuha ay 3,172 cases,” DOH officer-in-charge Ma. Rosario Vergeire said during a Friday media forum.
[Translation: The latest projections by our experts estimate that if low compliance with minimum public health standards continues, the highest we can expect is 3,172 cases.]
It was previously projected that—with low compliance with health standards in mind over the holidays—national daily cases could range from 1,140 to 2,294.
READ: Over 2K COVID-19 daily cases possible by year-end if health compliance declines DOH
“Sa ngayon, nasa 1,288 so maaring dumoble or trumiple depende sa pagpapatupad natin o pag-comply sa minimum public health standard,” Vergeire continued.
[Translation: Right now, we are at 1,288 so it could possibly double or triple depending on our compliance with minimum public health standards.]
“This is a projection and not cast in stone,” the DOH-OIC clarified.
She added that at present, hospitals had lower COVID-19 utilization rates and were instead burdened by non-COVID cases.
“Sa ngayon (So far), our hospitals are more burdened with non-COVID cases. Almost 75% to 80% occupancy among different hospitals are because of non-COVID cases. Our utilization for our hospitals for COVID right now is just at 16%,” Vergeire enumerated.
Meanwhile, OCTA Research fellow Guido David pointed out that, from the previous 264 daily cases last Nov. 23, the daily COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila had soared to 411 as of Dec. 2.
He likened this spike in cases to the positivity rates observed in previous COVID-19 variant surges.
“The increase of positive rate in the NCR is around the same rate of increase during the omicron BA.5 (from June) and the XBB (from September),” David said on Twitter, Friday.
