Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, July 16) — The OCTA Research on Saturday projected that Metro Manila is likely to reach the peak of its current wave of COVID-19 cases within a week.
“Bagamat nandyan pa rin ‘yung surge, buhay na buhay siya, bumabagal na ‘tong surge na ‘to sa National Capital Region at ang estimate ng OCTA, ‘yung peak natin, maaabot natin in a week or so,” OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye told CNN Philippines’ Newsroom Weekend.
[Translation: Though the surge is there, it’s slowing down in the National Capital Region and OCTA estimates that the peak will be reached in a week or so.]
“If we all help each other — that means following minimum public health standards, wearing our masks, getting ourselves vaccinated and boosted — we could see a major slowdown, and once that peak is reached… pababa na ‘yung mga kaso. ‘Yun ‘yung implication ng peak [cases will decrease. That’s the implication of peaking],” he explained.
OCTA said Metro Manila recorded an average of 802 cases daily over the past week — higher than the 624 cases during the July 2-8 period.
Despite this, it noted the weekly growth rate has slowed to 28% from 41%.
The reproduction rate — or the number of people infected by a single case — also dropped slightly to 1.38 as of July 12, coming from 1.49 as of July 5.
“With the current rate of decrease, the peak in the NCR could happen within seven days,” OCTA said.
“Note that the (Omicron) BA.4/BA.5 wave in the NCR is figuring to last longer than the corresponding wave in South Africa,” it added.
The current wave, it stated, is still less severe than the Delta surge that hit the country last year, as well as the Omicron surge in January.
It stressed that only 29.6% of COVID-19 beds in the region were occupied as of last week, while the ICU utilization rate was at 22.8%.
“Hospitals are not likely to get filled up. Still, the public is advised to take necessary precautions,” its report read.
