Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, June 22)— The number of COVID-19 cases in the country may reach its peak depending on various factors, the Department of Health said Wednesday, as it discussed possible timelines and scenarios.
The country on Monday logged a daily average of 436 COVID-19 cases — or a total of 3,051 new infections — from June 13 to 19, reflecting an 82% rise from the previous week.
Health Spokesperson Ma. Rosario Vergeire said that nationwide infections may peak at different months depending on the COVID-19 variant, compliance to public health standards, and immunization status.
If there is no variant of concern pestering the country and health protocols are followed, DOH says infections may peak by October.
“We have different dates kung saan tataas talaga. Kung walang pumasok na variant of concern, mga October, maaring dun pa lang tataas,” said Vergeire in a virtual briefing.
[Translation: We have different dates concerning when it will really rise. If no variant of concern will enter the country, cases may rise by October.]
Another scenario is that COVID-19 cases may peak by September due to the more transmissible variants.
“Pero kung tayo ay pasukin ng more transmissible na variants, tulad ng meron tayo ngayon, according to our evidence, mas transmissible ang subvariants ng Omicron, (so) we can have this by the middle of September,” said Vergeire.
[Translation: If more transmissible variants will enter, just like what we have now, according to evidence, Omicron variants are more transmissible, and (so) we can have this by the middle of September.]
COVID-19 variants Delta and Omicron, and subvariants such as BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 have been detected in the country.
The worst situation that could happen is the infections increasing significantly as immediate as the third week of July.
“Pero kung tayo ay pasukin nitong more transmissible plus immune escaping, and nakita natin na bumaba ang minimum public health standards at nakita rin natin na yung uptick for boosters is still low, we will have it as early as third of week of July hanggang sa first week of August,” said Vergeire.
[Translation: But if a more transmissible plus immune escaping one enter, with less people following the minimum public health standards, and the uptick for boosters is still low, we will have it as early as third week of July until the first week of August.]
The DOH earlier said that COVID-19 infections in the country, especially in the NCR, are continuously rising, indicating “a start in the peak in the number of cases.”
But Vergeire pointed out that the country remains at low risk despite an increase in new cases. She said that nationwide healthcare utilization rate remains at low-risk classification at 14.61%-17.82%.
“What would be more concerning would be the number of hospitalizations ay tataas (will increase) because of waning immunity,” she said.
The highest daily number of new cases was recorded on January 15 this year, when 39,004 infections were reported. The latest daily average of 436 is just a little over 1% of that number.
Asked if the country could possibly see cases reaching tens of thousands similar to the previous surges, Vergeire said: “Nothing is certain. Ang daming [There are many] factors that can contribute to why transmissions and infections are happening.”
DOH’s latest data showed that 77.85% of the target population have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, while almost 14.8 million have been boosted against coronavirus.
