Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, June 10) — A mild surge in COVID-19 cases is possible this month or in July, an OCTA Research fellow said Friday, as his group flagged a “more concerning” situation in Metro Manila.
“Possible but it could just be a mild surge,” Prof. Guido David told CNN Philippines in a message when asked if a spike in cases is seen to happen soon.
In a report released Thursday, OCTA said the National Capital Region’s (NCR) positivity rate – or the percentage of those sick with COVID-19 out of all tested – has climbed to 2.2% as of June 8, from the 1.5% recorded a week before.
The region’s reproduction rate – which refers to the number of people infected by a single case – meanwhile increased to 1.29 as of June 6, from 1.15 as of May 31.
It is also the first time since April 8 that the seven-day average of new cases in NCR hit over 100, according to OCTA. Its figures showed the seven-day average rose to 102, up by 28% from the previous week.
The group likewise reported a slightly higher rate of COVID-19 hospital bed use in Metro Manila. From 1,372 beds (21% of the total available) occupied on June 5, the figure rose to 1,520 ( 24%) on June 8 or “about 50 additional beds occupied per day for the past 3 days.”
“While NCR remained at low risk, the public is strongly advised to avoid complacency with practicing health protocols,” OCTA wrote in its report.
DOH official: Surge not expected anytime soon
In a media briefing on Friday, Department of Health (DOH) Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire clarified OCTA’s computations are not always the same as DOH’s, although she said the increases in positivity rate and cases in NCR have indeed been observed.
But while Vergeire acknowledged a surge is always possible, she added this likely won’t happen anytime soon.
“Para masabi natin na tumaas siya ngayon at magkaka-surge na tayo o tataas na in the coming days, sa tingin ko po ay mukhang hindi naman po siguro mangyayari at hindi gano’n kabilis ang mga transmission at pagtaas ng kaso,” she told reporters.
[Translation: For us to say we’ll have a surge in the coming days, I think that won’t happen and I don’t think the transmission and rise in cases is that fast.]
Echoing OCTA’s appeal, Vergeire said what’s important is for the public to stick to preventive measures, such as wearing of face masks, as well as getting vaccinated and boosted, especially amid threats of new and more transmissible coronavirus variants.
CNN Philippines Digital Producer Kristel Limpot and Correspondent Carolyn Bonquin contributed to this report.
The DOH said latest data showed the positivity rate in Metro Manila was at two percent for the week of June 2 to 8, while the percentage nationwide was at 1.6%.
