Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, January 28) — Although new COVID-19 cases are on the downtrend in Metro Manila, it is not yet low enough to merit a downgrade to Alert Level 2, OCTA Research said on Friday.
OCTA fellow Guido David said that the healthcare utilization in the National Capital Region is currently at low risk, but all other metrics used by the Inter-Agency Task Force as basis for the alert level classification remains at high risk.
“The average daily attack rate will still be high and the positivity rate will still be above 10% and I think those will be major considerations in deciding whether to go down in alert level two,” he told CNN Philippines.
David projects that it could go down to moderate risk by next week.
He added, “My sense is that they might wait for the number of cases to decrease even further and that will be a long way actually because after next week, the NCR might already be moving to low risk. When that happens, definitely I think Alert Level 2 can be considered.”
David also said the new coronavirus infections in Metro Manila and the majority of Calabarzon and Central Luzon continue to go down. During the peak, these three regions accounted for 88% of the daily new cases, but it is now at only 32% and still decreasing.
He reiterated that it’s possible for the National Capital Region to record 500 to 1,000 daily cases by mid-February since the current figure is now at around 2,200.
Metro Manila remains under Alert Level 3 until Jan. 31. The next classification has yet to be announced by the IATF.
Most major cities outside Metro Manila, such as Metro Cebu and Baguio City, are starting to record a lower number of new cases, he claimed.
“I am foreseeing that because the trends have been close to peaking or peaking in many areas outside NCR Plus, that the number of cases will probably start to decrease over the next few days,” argued David. “I would tend to guess that soon we will be at less than 10,000 cases per day. It could happen probably within one to two weeks.”
