With the lower classification, David reminded Filipinos that NCR will not always remain under low risk especially if people are not careful.
Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, October 26) — OCTA Research on Tuesday tagged Metro Manila as low risk for COVID-19 as new cases continued to decline.
The seven-day case average in the National Capital Region (NCR) went down to 901 this week from 1,405 recorded the previous week, OCTA Researcher Guido David said on Twitter.
The positivity rate, which is the percentage of all coronavirus tests performed that turn out to be positive, went down to 6% this week from 7% recorded last week. The World Health Organization earlier said the ideal percentage is below 5%.
NCR’s healthcare utilization rate was 35% while its intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy rate stood at 46% as of Oct. 24.
Its average daily attack rate, defined as the number of infected people per 100,000 population, is currently at 7.
David said 14 of the localities in NCR are under low risk while Mandaluyong, San Juan, and Valenzuela are still under moderate risk as their average daily attack rate is above 10.
Officials earlier said the higher the attack rate in an area, the higher a person’s risk of getting the infectious disease there.
David said OCTA’s metrics to assess a location’s overall risk level are based on indicators from the U.S. nonprofit Covid Act Now and the Department of Health.
The latest DOH analysis announced on Monday showed Metro Manila is under moderate risk for COVID-19. But the country’s overall classification is low risk, the department said.
“If people are not careful or people are complacent…we could possibly see a return to moderate risk or even high risk. That is why it’s important for us to strictly follow health protocols and we should be careful in crowded places,” he told CNN Philippines.
A low risk classification does not automatically mean that the Alert Level 3 status in Metro Manila could be lowered to two or one, David added.
He said there still other factors – like vaccination rate – that should be considered before the alert level is eased further.
