Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, September 5) – Former pandemic task force adviser Dr. Tony Leachon said the government may not be able achieve its revised goal to attain herd immunity by year-end.
The Health department said experts have recommended that government raise the target to “up to 90%” from the initial 70% because the new COVID-19 variants have lowered the efficacy of available vaccines.
As of end-August, nearly 14 million Filipinos or 13% of the population are fully vaccinated against the coronavirus.
The new goal is to inoculate 100 million Filipinos by the end of the year.
READ: Govt experts increase herd immunity estimate to 90%
At the rate the country’s vaccination rollout is going, however, Leachon believes it will take longer than the government’s projected timeline to reach herd immunity.
“I don’t think we will achieve the targeted herd immunity, even the 50% targeted for the NCR bubble for December 2021. That is precarious at this point in time. At the rate we’re going, I think we will reach the herd immunity about 85% to 90% in two years’ time. So that may be 2023,” he told CNN Philippines.
Leachon added the government must revisit its vaccine portfolio and prioritize the purchase of brands that have higher efficacy rates amid the spread of the Delta variant.
He also raised concern on the supply of procured doses coming from the United States given the recent developments there.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration had given Pfizer-BioNTech full approval for its COVID-19 vaccine for those aged 16 and older, opening the door for the vaccine to be commercially sold in America.
U.S. health officials also want vaccine booster shots to be offered starting Sept. 20, subject to the approval of the FDA and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Government vaccine expert panel member Dr. Rontgene Solante remains optimistic about the revised target, but he says achieving this goal will highly depend on the arrival of vaccines.
“We still have four months to go. So, hopefully before mag-end ang year makakapag-bakuna, maski 70% (of the population) before the end of the year makukuha natin ‘yan, that’s already a good sign. Then in the first quarter next year, matapos natin ‘yung (vaccination) ng remaining population,” Solante told Newsroom Weekend.
[Translation: We still have four months to go. So, hopefully before the end of the year we can vaccinate at least 70% of the population, that’s already a good sign. Then in the first quarter next year, we can finish vaccinating the remaining population.]
The government is expecting around 55 million vaccines to arrive between September and October.
No final decision on booster shots yet
The country’s vaccine expert panel has recommended administering booster shots to healthcare workers and the immunocompromised.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire clarified that there’s no final decision yet despite the suggestion of the panel, adding that 50% of the population must be vaccinated first before rolling out booster shots.
Infectious disease expert Dr. Benjamin Co said the government must stick to the vaccination of the priority population first before expanding the rollout.
“I think we just need to focus on what the initial plans are with the limited resources that we have. I guess by doing that, we can achieve our goals, slowly but without any background noise…If we keep mixing and we keep adding all other variables: children, boosters, third doses and so on and so forth, it becomes a challenge to get everyone vaccinated,” Co told CNN Philippines in another interview.
Leachon, meanwhile, said the country should start planning for the possibility of rolling out booster shots in the future.
“We should already put that in the equation so that we can actually demand for a higher budget. So that when the time comes that the Delta variant is here and the vaccines that we ordered may not be effective, then we have the available booster doses already,” he said.
Vaccine czar Carlito Galvez, Jr. said the government is already in talks with four vaccine manufacturers for booster shots. He added that Chinese drugmaker Sinovac also pledged to donate 500,000 more doses to the country.
Health officials and the expert panel will meet to discuss their final recommendation on administering booster shots.
