Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, August 19) – Although new COVID-19 cases in Cebu City remain high, the independent OCTA Research group on Thursday said the surge in the area is “winding down.”
OCTA reported that the spike in infections – which it described as the “worst” Cebu City has seen since the start of the pandemic – has slowed, with the reproduction rate dropping to 1.29 as of Aug. 18.
This means that while there was a 9% increase in the city’s average daily new cases – from 275 to 300 – during the Aug. 12 to 18 period compared to the week before, the number of people infected by a single patient has actually decreased.
OCTA said current trends also indicate that the reproduction number may further drop to below 1 by the first week of September.
“This would mean that new cases will possibly be on a downward trend by then,” it explained.
Similar trends have also been observed in other areas in Cebu, including Mandaue and Lapu-Lapu, according to OCTA.
However, it stressed the possibility that the figures could always still take a turn for the worse.
OCTA also noted that the average daily attack rate (ADAR) of COVID-19 in Cebu City and Lapu-Lapu, which were at 29.17 and 29.89, respectively, are still at “critical” level.
ADAR refers to the average number of new cases per 100,000 population.
Meanwhile, Mandaue, Talisay, Consolacion, Liloan, Minglanilla, Carcar, and Toledo City registered a “high” ADAR.
The intensive care unit occupancy for COVID-19 patients in Cebu City was also still at a critical level of 88% while the utilization rate of regular hospital beds was tagged as high at 75%.
Hospital bed occupancy in Carcar and Lapu-Lapu were classified as critical, at 100% and 93%, respectively.
OCTA also said the town of Consolacion logged an average of 32 new cases daily over the past week, a 78% jump from the previous week.
