Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, July 28) — Metro Manila hospitals may reach full capacity next month if the region experiences a Delta-driven surge in COVID-19 cases similar to neighboring countries Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, analysts at OCTA Research have warned.
“Regardless of the surge we take, it could be the surge in Thailand, the surge in Malaysia, or the surge in Vietnam, the expectation is the hospital occupancy will reach about 70% around the 11th or 12th of August,” OCTA fellow Fr. Nic Austriaco said in an online briefing.
“A week later, because of the explosive nature of the surge, we would reach maximum capacity for the healthcare,” he added.
He said he came up with his projection by using the same mathematical model, which anticipated the surge of coronavirus-related hospitalizations in Metro Manila early this year.
During the huge spike in infections in March and April, social media was flooded with stories of families of COVID-19 patients from Metro Manila going to outlying provinces in search of medical attention. Some were not able to make it inside health facilities even hours after waiting in line to be accommodated.
Austriaco said to prevent the healthcare facilities from being overwhelmed again, the government should impose a two-week lockdown immediately.
“What we have learned from other countries is the earlier the lockdown, the shorter the lockdown,” he said.
If the government does not impose stricter mobility restrictions on Metro Manila, where the feared Delta has been recently detected, the number of cases recorded per day in the region may go up to 3,000 or even higher by August 10, OCTA fellow Guido David said in the same briefing. Currently, the daily average is around 1,000, he said. Two weeks ago, the number was just around 600, he added.
For his part, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua told CNN Philippines that while the risks from Delta are higher, “our response is to manage the risks by ensuring much faster vaccination rate and limiting more stringent lockdown in local areas or sectors of highest risk, while allowing the rest of the people, especially those already vaccinated, to earn a living.”
