Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, May 27) — This year’s growth outlook for 21 economies in the Asia-Pacific rim has turned optimistic, thanks to the rollout of vaccine programs and expansionary measures that governments have taken, according to the latest report of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).
In its May edition of the “APEC Regional Trends Analysis,” the bloc’s research unit bumped up its growth forecast for the region to 6.3% for 2021, a significant revision from the 5.7% it tipped in February.
“The near-term economic outlook points to higher APEC GDP growth of 6.3 percent in 2021, with the expected strong increase in domestic and global activity, as pent-up demand is unleashed following a year of subdued spending due largely to COVID-19 related movement restrictions,” the APEC report read.
“The development and production of multiple vaccines by the science community has generated optimism, boosting expectations of a more durable economic recovery,” it added.
But growth could still be lopsided.
Asia-Pacific economies could recover at different speeds and magnitude depending on how fast they get the coronavirus vaccines and cover their populations. Vaccine purchases vary across nations – some as low as 40% of the population while others as high as almost 800%, according to the APEC paper.
The Philippines, for instance, has scaled down its vaccination target to below the original 70 million vaccinees this year, citing supply constraints, although critics pointed to faulty handling and slow rollout. The nation has almost 110 million people as of latest data from the statistics agency.
The APEC also warned that the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and the likelihood of new variants being resistant to vaccines pose downside risks to its growth outlook.
“We know that a large number of APEC economies will be able to achieve widespread immunization by the middle of 2022. Some will be able to achieve that in 2021,” APEC policy support unit director Denis Hew told journalists during Thursday’s virtual briefing.
“However, confirmed vaccine purchases do vary across APEC economies so that results in disparity in terms of vaccination coverage… In other words, there are some economies that have too much vaccines and others have very little or not enough. So getting access and a much more equitable distribution of these vaccines to counter COVID-19 will be quite crucial,” Hew pointed out.
The APEC paper did not specifically offer growth forecasts for each of the bloc’s 21 member-economies that count the Philippines. The 20 other members are Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Russia, Singapore, Taipei, Thailand, US and Vietnam.
