Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, April 5) — Halfway through the lockdown, the Department of Health on Monday said it is too early to determine if the two-week enhanced community quarantine enforced over Metro Manila and four nearby provinces is successful despite the encouraging findings published by the OCTA Research Group.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire on Monday admitted the spread hasn’t slowed down yet. She said it will take about two weeks after the ECQ period ends on April 11 to fully realize if it has been effective in curbing the spike in Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, Cavite, and Laguna.
“It is too early to say for us to analyze and say na nagwo-work na ang ECQ. About two weeks from now tsaka natin makikita [It’s too early for us to say the ECQ is working, we will see after two weeks]… We won’t see any changes right now,” she said in a virtual briefing.
OCTA on Monday said the reproduction number in Metro Manila, the epicenter of the country’s coronavirus outbreak, has decreased from 1.88 to 1.61 after one week of ECQ. It said it is “clear the lockdown has been effective” in slowing down the rise in new cases.
Vergeire explained that the reproduction rate can be affected by several factors, so the government does not heavily rely on it to determine the success of its COVID-19 efforts. Her two-week timeline is based on the surge that happened back in July-August 2020. She said that once the ECQ ended during that time, cases peaked then took 10 days before it started to go down. The official added it took three to four weeks after the lockdown before hospitals started getting decongested.
The Health Department also warned that the country may see an “artificial” decline in new COVID-19 cases in the next few days because dozens of testing laboratories halted operations during the Holy Week. Vergeire appealed to laboratories to continue testing and analyzing samples as this is crucial in seeing the real situation in the country.
“We need to know the numbers so it can guide our response. Itong artificial na pagbaba ng mga kaso, huwag natin isipin na bumabagal ang spread ng transmission. Hindi pa natin makikita ang epekto nitong ginagawa nating ECQ until about two weeks from the time we have ended the ECQ,” she said.
[Translation: Let’s not assume the spread of transmission is slowing down because of the artificial decline. We won’t see the effect of ECQ about two weeks from the end of ECQ.]
The government is eyeing the possible relaxation of quarantine measures in NCR Plus by next week should COVID-19 response strategies prove to be effective.
