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Health experts recommend longer ECQ to curb COVID-19 surge

The government is open to extend the enhanced community quarantine imposed in the Greater Manila area, National Task Force Against COVID-19 Chairman Delfin Lorenzana said Monday. He said all options remain on the table when it comes to measures needed to address the COVID-19 crisis.

Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, March 29) — Two health experts are recommending a longer imposition of enhanced community quarantine in Metro Manila and nearby provinces to effectively stamp out the alarming spread of COVID-19 in these areas.

Dr. John Wong, an epidemiologist and member of the IATF Sub-Technical Working Group on Data Analytics, on Monday said it will take more than one week to stop the spread of the infection. He suggested extending it to 10 days.

The Health Department, for its part, reiterated that the policy is not cast in stone, adding they are constantly reviewing data to see if the ECQ should be extended or lifted.

The spokesperson of the Philippine General Hospital, Dr. Jonas del Rosario, said 14 days to one month of strict restrictions will be necessary.

“I am hoping that is enough, but realistically if you look at the numbers, I don’t think it’s enough… We cannot move forward if we don’t have good control of this COVID-19 transmission,” he told CNN Philippines.

“Everything will be flexible, everything will be dynamic,” DOH spokesperson Maria Rosario Vergeire said in a media forum in the same day.

Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, Cavite, and Laguna are under strict quarantine restrictions from March 29 to April 4, with curfew from 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. Non-essential businesses, staycations, religious gatherings are not allowed during this period to encourage the public to stay home.

RELATED: One-week ECQ in Greater Manila area explained

“It will be based a lot of factors, but most importantly, it will be based on the capacity of our health system,” she added.

Del Rosario said much has to be seen on the effectivity of the one-week ECQ. He said he understands the government’s worry on the impact of a long lockdown on the country’s economy.

More testing

Regardless of the length, Wong said the government has to maximize the ECQ period by expanding the number of COVID-19 tests conducted. He urged those experiencing flu-like symptoms to undergo a swab test to avoid infecting their household members and officemates.

“We probably should be testing three times more than what we’re doing now… I think we have the capacity. We just need people to proactively come forward once they are symptomatic,” he told CNN Philippines.

Vice President Leni Robredo said local government units need further assistance from the Duterte administration to improve their testing capacity. She recommended a targeted testing approach among regions, noting that Metro Manila alone needs about 90,000 tests per day with its 20.17% positivity rate. This means for every five COVID-19 tests, one person yields a positive result.

The new COVID-19 cases in the country breached 10,000 for the first time on Monday, bringing the cumulative count to 731,894. Of the total infected, 115,495 or 15.8% are active cases, the DOH said.

The bulletin showed a daily positivity rate of 18% as of noon of March 28. This refers to the percentage of those infected out of all tested in a single day. The World Health Organization recommends that the number be kept below 5%, and experts said a higher percentage suggests more widespread transmission and that there are likely more cases which have not yet been detected.

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