Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, February 9) – The occupancy rate in Cebu City hospitals may hit critical level in two to three weeks if COVID-19 cases there continue to rise, the OCTA Research group warned in its latest report.
Cebu City has about 820 hospital beds from 15 hospitals, with the bed occupancy currently at 36%.
Although still at a manageable level, Cebu City averaged 123 infections daily from February 1 to 7. This is a 30% increase from the previous week and continues to be an “upward trend,” OCTA Research said.
“The positivity rate increased to 10% and its attack rate rose above 10, to 11.11 per 100,000, which classifies the LGU as a high-risk area per DOH guidelines,” the report read.
If COVID-19 infections in Cebu City continues to increase, researchers said there might be an additional 240 beds occupied in hospitals.
“If this happens, it will increase hospital bed occupancy past the 70% critical level,” the report stated. “The goal is to slow down the increase in new cases to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.”
With this warning, OCTA Research fellow and professor Guido David advised the local government to implement stricter community quarantine to slow down the rise of coronavirus infections in Cebu City.
“We are pro-economy… it’s been a long time since we had this concern in Cebu City because they are a very well-managed LGU… but the cases are increasing,” he said.
David added that Cebu City should also do more tests and genome sequencing.
The capacity of hospitals in the whole region of Central Visayas, including Cebu Province, reached the “warning zone” last year. This meant that 30% to 70% of the available beds and mechanical ventilators in the hospitals were already utilized.
Although the Cebu City government and its healthcare system are properly responding to the pandemic, researchers cautioned that the possible spread of the new UK variant might lead to stricter measures.
“While we are confident that Cebu City and the province are now better prepared to deal with the current increase in cases, the possibility of the more infectious UK variant spreading is a game changer which will require more aggressive interventions to suppress viral transmissions,” the report said.
The country’s COVID-19 cases reached 540,227 on Tuesday, with 11,296 deaths and 499,764 recoveries.
However, the Department of Health Central Visayas does not agree with the researchers’ prediction.
CNN Philippines correspondent Carolyn Bonquin and Cebu correspondent Dale Israel contributed to this report
DOH Central Visayas spokesperson Dr. Mary Jean Loreche said in a statement that Cebu City has enough facilities to handle mild and asymptomatic cases, which will cushion the hospitals from being overwhelmed.
She added that hospitals in the city are willing to have more available beds if ever needed.
Moreover, Loreche pointed out that there are different factors that could have contributed to the rise of COVID-19 cases in Cebu City. These include the reopening of businesses and establishments, people who breach minimum health protocols, and the movement of people under the new normal.
