More tests needed as COVID cases rise again

Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, January 18) — Healthcare Professional Alliance Against COVID-19 convenor Dra. Anna Ong-Lim said more tests are needed as the number of coronavirus cases in the country rises again, reaching over half a million to date.

In a forum on Monday, Ong-Lim said the current positivity rate is 8.2 % as of January 15. This refers to the number of people out of those tested who were found positive for COVID-19.

From 12% at the start of the pandemic in April, the positivity rate went up to 14.3% on July 31, but was successfully pulled down to 4.5% on December 3.

However, the holiday activities are said to have contributed to the rise in cases.

Health experts are on the lookout for the possible surge due to Traslacion and possibly, the entry of a new SARS-COV2 mutation.

“Ibig sabihin, maaring kailangan pang magpadami ng testing rate, at ito ay isang reflection na dumadami ang kaso sa ating bansa,” Dr. Ong-Lim said.

[Translation: This means there may be a need to increase our testing rate, and this is a reflection that cases in the country are rising.]

The World Health Organization recommends keeping the positivity rate to 5% or lower.

OCTA researchers: Reproduction rate in several areas on upward trend

As of Monday, the reproduction rate in the Philippines is 1.25, while the National Capital Region is at 1.15, according to OCTA researchers fellow and University of the Philippines Professor Guido David. The reproduction rate refers to the number of people that one infected person may pass the SARS-COV2 virus to. The goal is to keep it below 1.

He also said there is an upward trend in Cordillera Administrative Region, Isabela, Davao, Cebu, and Misamis Oriental.

OCTA researchers cited in a report released on Sunday that the positivity rate in Benguet has reached 21% on January 16, from 9% on December 18—with the average case per week rising to 85 in the past week, from 35 in the week prior.

“A high positivity rate suggests a high rate of infection within the region, or the testing needs to be increased,” the OCTA report read.

HPAAC: Higher reproduction rate means more people need vaccines

Meanwhile, Dr. Ong-Lim said the reproduction rate affects how many people need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.

“The higher our reproduction number, the higher number of people we need to immunize to achieve herd immunity,” she explained.

“‘Di porke meron nang bakuna ay tapos na ang ating problema. Kailangan pa rin natin pababain ang dami ng kaso sa ating bansa para mas mabilis natin maabot ang proteksyon na kailangan.”

[Translation: The arrival of vaccines wouldn’t mark the end of our problem. We still need to lower the number of cases in the country in order to more quickly ensure the protection we need.]

Based on the current reproduction rate, she said at least 20 million Filipinos should be inoculated. But based on previous immunization program, she said reaching this target could still be a challenge.

“Base sa ating national immunization program, we have a birth cohort of about 2.7 million yearly. Hindi nga natin nauubos ‘yun, pano pa kaya ang 20 million? Kaya talagang very challenging itong ating susuungin. This is a new cohort of patients on top of people who are already vaccinates kasi hindi naman natin sila pwedeng pabayaan din,” Dr. Ong-Lim said.

[Translation: Based on our national immunization program, we have a birth cohort of about 2.7 million yearly. We are not even able vaccinate all of that, what more with the 20 million? That’s why this endeavor would be very challenging. This is a new cohort of patients on top of people who are already vaccinated, because we also cannot neglect them.]

Aside from following the health protocols, HPAAC convenors Dr. Antonio Dans and Aileen Espina said it is important to ensure that the public is well-informed about the vaccine. They assured that HPAAC is there to monitor the entry of the vaccines to ensure that it will not cause harm to the people. Amid different statements on vaccines flooding news reports and social media, Dr. Dans said it is also better to just let the regulators speak to avoid confusing the public.