Metro Manila (CNN Philippines) — The Senate shakeup may have purged so-called dissenters, but this doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing for the administration’s policies just yet, say analysts.
Despite Monday’s initial shock, the sudden split within the former supermajority is unlikely to overhaul Senate dynamics when it comes to the passage of laws.
“Essentially, what happened was not much of a change other than the head of chairmanships,” said Edmund Tayao, executive director of the Local Government Development Foundation.
“Other than that in terms of actually functions of significance, I really don’t see anything of significance,” Tayao said in an interview on Wednesday with CNN Philippines.
The nation was briefly taken aback Monday when Senator Manny Pacquiao moved to declare the Senate president pro-tempore and three committee chairmanships vacant, effectively unseating three Liberal Party senators and an LP ally.
The motion led to the ouster of Franklin Drilon from the second highest seat in Senate, while senators Bam Aquino and Francis Pangilinan lost chairmanship of the education and the agriculture committees, respectively, and LP ally Senator Risa Hontiveros was forced to step down as the health panel’s head.
Read: Pimentel: Senate shakeup not about move to quell opposition dissent
In a matter of minutes, the four senators joined the minority headed by Duterte critic Antonio Trillanes IV. Senator Leila De Lima, another LP lawmaker, followed suit through a letter sent from her cell in Camp Crame.
Read: Sen. Leila De Lima arrested over drug charges
Monday’s split strengthened the “image” of an opposition, said Jan Robert Go, an Assistant Professor of Political Science in the University of the Philippines-Diliman.
“It would do more harm than good if they remain in the supermajority. They really have to create the image among themselves that they are the opposition because we need that kind of balance,” said Go in an interview.
Shakeup won’t hasten passage of priority bills of administration
Chairmanships of senate committees allow lawmakers to pursue advocacies close to their hearts. But Tayao feels the four senators’ unseating will do little to alter the fate of bills on the roster of the 17th Senate.
That’s because in the end, the passage of laws comes down to the senators’ individual votes.
Tayao said senators have a history of acting autonomously rather than in line with their political party
“Each senator is a republic to themselves. Even if the senators belong to a political party, there is nothing that suggests you can count on his or her support all the time,” he said.
There are few guarantees of the split either bolstering or hindering the passage of administration-backed priority bills such as the death penalty, which is now headed for its third and final reading in the lower house.
“On the part of the death penalty there will be no alliance between majority and minority. It will pit them individually,” said Victor Manhit, managing director of policy consultancy group Stratbase.
Unlike their counterparts in the lower house, who depend on the national government to enact projects for their constituents, senators enjoy greater autonomy from both the administration as well as their political parties, Manhit told CNN Philippines.
The death penalty, which was passed in under a minute on second reading in the House of Representatives on Wednesday is still at the committee level in Senate, where Senate President Koko Pimentel said it remains a divisive issue.
Go agrees that the Senate shakeup may not hasten priority bills such as the death penalty, but it may stand more rigorous questioning from members of the newly- formed minority.
“What they can do is register the opposition and challenge the arguments…tame down the words of the law so that it might not necessarily be too harsh-particularly with the death penalty,” he said.
Clearer opposition lines drawn
The impact of the reorganization in the Senate lies not in the bills they push for enactment into law, but in Drilon, Pangilinan, Aquino, and Hontiveros’s new roles within the minority bloc.
“Now it’s clear they’re no longer with the admin…this will be a greater chance for them to voice out their concerns and criticism,” said Go.
He added, the five senators’ split from the supermajority will spur a more robust opposition-a natural prerequisite for a healthy government to function.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Party bides its time on a decision to split from the supermajority in the lower house, pending a final vote on the death penalty.
Read: LP waiting on possible House realignment after death penalty vote
