(CNN Philippines) — After collapsed buildings killed more than 8,000 people in Nepal following a 7.8-magnitude earthquake last April, Filipinos started wondering if Metro Manila could withstand a similar disaster — or if its structures would crumble like a deck of cards.
On Wednesday (May 14), a strong tremor with a 6.8-magnitude also shocked Japan.
Fears are renewed over a similar disaster from the West Valley Fault traversing Metro Manila and state geologists have warned it could happen any time.
Dr. Renato Solidum, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), noted that the high number of casualties in the Nepal quake was caused mainly by poorly-built infrastructure.
He said deaths from a strong earthquake in Metro Manila could be dramatically reduced if buildings were to be built more strongly or reinforced to withstand sudden great shocks.
Related: Bracing for the big one: Is Metro Manila quake-ready?
“Definitely, collapsed buildings will cause severe damage. Around 33,500 people will die instantly and 120,000 plus will be injured,” he explained.
He added that some areas where the ground is soft, even if it’s farther away from the epicenter, could experience amplified shaking and higher intensity.
In Metro Manila, Solidum said, the West Valley Fault traverses stiff adobe rocks, which gives the impression that the ground is stronger. But it’s not the case, especially in areas near the Manila Bay.
Related: Preparing for an earthquake in Metro Manila
He said that factors such as the height of a building also contributes to the risk.
“In areas close to the fault, the ground shaking is quick, and smaller buildings will be more affected. If the epicenter is farther, taller buildings will be more affected.”
Structural resilience
Solidum stressed the importance of structural resiliency in Metro Manila and its neighboring provinces.
“If you’ve seen the Nepal earthquake, Kathmandu valley is like 77 kilometers from the epicenter of the 7.8-earthquake last April, but despite that, Kathmandu Valley was devastated.”
But a problem in the implementation of structural resiliency measures exists, he added.
“Engineers and building officials have an ethical and professional responsibility to oversee the structural integrity of buildings.”
He insisted that the National Building Code should be strictly implemented by local governments and followed by developers.
“If we reduce buildings [that] collapse,” he said, “we significantly reduce the death toll.”
[Editor’s note: CNN Philippines will have a special coverage of the Metro Manila shake drill on July 30, 2015 starting at 10:30 a.m. CNN Philippines is available on free tv: Manila RPN – TV 9; Destiny Ch.14; Cablelink Ch.14; Cignal Ch.10; Sky Cable (Manila) Ch.14; and via livestream on cnnphilippines.com/videos.]
